In order to create
a combined US online poker and casino market worth up to $12bn,
America will legalise online gambling, Goldman Sachs predicts.
“We believe it is logical to assume that the US market will
eventually regulate – given the potential implications for US
tax take, if nothing else,” the bank stated in a note to
investors today. “Based on a simple ‘grossing up’ of
PartyGaming’s rake relative to its 9% market share, the US poker
market alone was worth $1.5bn in 2008” it has been concluded in
the report, a figure which concurs with those from gambling data
specialists H2. “Were the market to be legalized, we believe
that the size of the revenue opportunity could increase
materially,” the report continued. “Based on an assumption of
30% penetration of offline poker players and $300 gross gaming
revenue (GGR) per player, we estimate that a legal poker market
could be worth $3bn.” The report continued: “Were GGR to
increase to 45%, and GGR per player rise to $400, the size of
the poker market alone could be worth $6bn. We also estimate
that the casino market could expand to a similar scale, based on
various offline penetration assumptions.”
The investment bank cautioned that progress made on regulating
online gambling at state level will be faster than the one made
at federal level. As reported on EGRmagazine.com, debate of
Congressman Barney Frank’s bill to repeal UIGEA has been delayed
until September, while state-level initiatives such as those to
legalise online poker in California or legal internet poker in
Florida are moving more quickly. “The momentum at state level,
where widening state budget deficits are ratcheting up financial
pressures, is clearly building,” the report concluded. “Indeed,
if California and Florida move forward with legislation to
legalise online poker, this could prove the catalyst for other
states to follow suit”. Goldman Sachs’ conclusions are
consistent with those of former PartyGaming chief executive and
current Harrah’s Interactive Entertainment boss Mitch Garber,
also predicting that the USA will soon legalise online gambling.
Source - The Malta Remote Gaming Council
